Winter Weather Update–Model Mayhem

December 30, 2013
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Last night the major models had the snow to the north of MD today they have the snow now in MD. While there has been a lot of chatter about a possible storm we must remember we are still a bit away from ANY chances of this storm and the models will flip again and again. With that said today was a good set of models for us snow lovers.

 

Let’s take a look. Last night the GFS and the EURO models had a storm track to our west near the Ohio Valley and then reforming along the coast just far enough north of us to limit our snow. Today the models had the storm tracking to our south and then reforming along the coast to give us snow. The EURO model gives a good dump of snow at that.

 

Below are the GFS and the EURO runs from today. As you can see we are in the snow zone with both of these models

Euro Model

 

GFS Model

 

With that being said there is still way too much uncertainty concerning details to make a call about timing, amounts and impacts. Snow is still no guarantee. There may be a lot of hype and I have seen some people have posted snowfall amounts from the models today; however I don’t feel this is responsible at this time and therefore I won’t do it. No use in running the hype train if we still don’t know if the train has left the station or could derailed along the way

 

There are three likely outcomes from this system.

 

1) A storm tracks across the Ohio Valley area and then reforms along the coast to our north and the precip falls to our north

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2) The polar jet dives south which forces the low to form further south along the coast and it moves along the coast which would give a good amount of snow. This is the outcome the EURO and GFS jumped on today.

 

3)  The Arctic boundary shifts south which in turn will push the storm further to the south and off the coast.

 

Now the tricky question is which one is right? At this time it is too early to say. As of now I put option 1 and 2 both at an equal chance. Hopefully the overnight and mid-morning model runs point us toward a direction one way on the other.

 

The bigger concern will be the cold that will be coming after this storm.The GFS and EURO models both dial up VERY cold temps for late in the week and the weekend. If we get snow on the ground we could see some of the coldest temps in years with overnight lows in the single digits very easily.

 

As always, please remember that what the weather models show and give us, mother nature can change her mind and take away from us. Weather changes at the drop of a hat, or so it seems. I will be be able to tell more on Wednesday, when I bring you the next full weather update.

 

Please stay tuned to AACBNE and Steve’s Weather Page for the latest on the chance of the storm and the cold air coming behind it.

 

 



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